COVID-19 India-Timeline
an understanding across States and Union Territories
IISc-ISI Predictions based on Omicron Transmissibility Rates in South Africa (Last updated February 07, 2022)
Model:
SEIR model with Vaccination
Model Parameters: Contact Rates $\beta$, Recovery period ($\frac{1}{\gamma}$= 5 days), Incubation period ($\frac{1}{\alpha}$ = 5.8 days).
Method
Past infection, vaccination, affected by immunity waning makes a certain
fraction of the population susceptible to the new variant which is taken as
a parameter: 30%, 60%,100%.
Contact Rates:
Estimated by the comparison of contact rates for South Africa during 15 May-15
June 2021 and 01-12 December 2021.
Assumed contact rate: Omicron = 1.41 x Delta for 100%. Similar calibration for
others.
Calibration:
On day 0, each city is seeded with 20 cases.
Once simulated, a suitable delay is added to align to the increasing trend during 27
December 2021 - 02 January 2022.