IISc-ISI Predictions based on Omicron Transmissibility Rates in South Africa
(Last updated February 7th, 2022)

India Predictions

India Estimated Hospital and ICU Requirement

Write-up in PDF Model:
  • SEIR model with Vaccination
  • Model Parameters: Contact Rates $\beta$, Recovery period ($\frac{1}{\gamma}$= 5 days), Incubation period ($\frac{1}{\alpha}$ = 5.8 days).
  • Past infection, vaccination, affected by immunity waning makes a certain fraction of the population susceptible to the new variant which is taken as a parameter: 30%, 60%,100%.
  • Contact Rates:
    • Estimated by the comparison of contact rates for South Africa during 15 May-15 June 2021 and 01-12 December 2021.
    • Assumed contact rate: Omicron = 1.41 x Delta for 100%. Similar calibration for others.
  • Calibration:
    • On day 0, each state is seeded with 20 cases.
    • Once simulated, a suitable delay is added to align to the increasing trend during 27 December 2021 - 02 January 2022.
Based on our earlier work: Strategies to Mitigate COVID-19 Resurgence Assuming Immunity Waning: A Study for Karnataka, India Aniruddha Adiga, Siva Athreya, Bryan Lewis, Madhav V. Marathe, Nihesh Rathod, Rajesh Sundaresan, Samarth Swarup, Srinivasan Venkatramanan and Sarath Yasodharan

Suggested BibTeX citation
 Contributors = {ISI-IISC-Team: Sree Akshaya, Siva Athreya, ,   Soham Bakshi, Srivatsa B., Nitya Gadhiwala, Disha Hegde,
 Jainam Khakra, Rahul Kanekar, Jagadish Midthala,  Abhiti Mishra, Sandipan Mishra, Srigyan Nandi, 
 Nihesh Rathod, A. Y. Sarath, Prashanth Shivakumar, Rajesh Sundaresan, Srinidi Veeraraghavan.},
 TITLE = {Covid-19 States of India and Karnataka District Timeline 20-21},
 YEAR = {2020},
 NOTE = {at \url{http://www.isibang.ac.in/~athreya/incovid19}}}